Friday night’s election debate, once again, has exposed how divided the British nation is. The Sky poll conducted by the YouGov shows 52-48 difference between the two main contenders vying for No 10, Downing Street, incumbent Boris Johnson and challenger Jeremy Corbyn. It is the same margin that set the course of the messiest divorce from the European Union, the Brexit referendum. The winner Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the debate stuck to his campaign theme ‘Get Brexit Done’. His rival, Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn’s policy of taking a neutral position and giving people another chance to decide between a new deal or remaining in the EU seems represent the Brexit opponents.
PM Johnson, amidst huge criticism for trying to evade media scrutiny, fared well in the debate by sticking to his well-rehearsed strategy with a portrayal of lingering chaos and uncertainty if his opponent gets in to Downing Street. His emphasis was on three areas : there is an agreed deal which in his words is ‘oven-ready’, all 630 candidates of his party have signed up to his deal and the whole Brexit process will be over by the end of 2020 which will then allow him to focus on other pressing domestic agenda.
Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand tried to prove that the ‘Oven-ready Brexit deal’ was not at all what it claimed and in fact would result in a no-deal divorce. He brought up a leaked document of the EU deal that Johnson had signed up to which showed goods moving between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom would require customs check and documentation. It implies an assumed border on the Irish Sea. Mr Johnson though denied any such requirement of customs procedure, but did not dispute the authenticity of the leaked document. Rather he went out on attacking Corbyn saying since when he started caring about the union of the Kingdom as he sympathised with the Irish Republical Army (IRA). Perhaps, this attacking tactics now exposes a real possibility of N Ireland’s isolation from the United Kingdom and pushing it to reunion of the Irish Republic.
In the last parliament, the Conservatives had to rely on the unionist MPs of Northern Ireland who have already expressed their inability to do the same again if the Brexit deal contains provisions of customs procedure or treats them differently from the rest of the UK. It explains why Johnson pleads for giving him a majority which every other opponent and some of his former associates want to deny him. In an unprecedented move few hour before the final debate, a former Conservative Prime Minister John Major came out and urged the nation to deny a majority to Johnson and vote tactically. He has called for electing those few rebel Conservatives who were kicked out from the party by Johnson.
Johnson’s team, however, would be pleased that he did not have any slip-ups and blunders which happened so many times over his pledges on building hospitals, recruiting new nurses and police officers, funding more schools and ending austerity. Those blunders worsened his standing in eyes of the people on his trustworthiness. Despite, emerging marginally ahead in the last debate, the same Sky/YouGov poll found Corbyn is trusted by more than 55 percent people than Johnson’s 29 percent.
Many analysts suggested that the BBC debate, the last of the two leaders face to face interaction, was the last chance for the Labour leader Corbyn to recover the lost ground in opinion polls, in which he has been trailing since the beginning of the campaign – sometimes by 12 points and recently by 7 points on an average. Though Corbyn performed much better than the the first one on ITV, there was nothing spectacular. His focus largely was on ending austerity and making this election more than Brexit. On Brexit, his strategy was to emphasise on bringing the country together from the division created by Brexit debate by maintaining his neutrality and giving people the final say.
Going by the opinion poll, it seems, his messages on ending austerity, bringing public services under the government control, protecting the National Health Service created by his party has succeeded in bringing back those wavering Labour voters who have been torn apart on the question of indecisiveness on Brexit and pains accrued from a decade long austerity imposed by the Conservatives.
In this election, Corbyn has been attacked from all sides. The Rightwing forces and the Press portray him as a danger to economy and security. In the Labour heartlands, who supported Brexit curse him for not taking a firm position on supporting and implementing the divorce deal. The Brexit Party, led by the most ardent Brexiteer, Nigel Farage has targeted Labour singularly as the main detractor of the Brexit Project. He has withdrawn all his party nominees where Conservatives have advantage, but kept candidates on all those seats where it can harm Labour. On the other hand, those who want to remain in the EU, popularly known as the Remainers are divided in two camps – one who want to revoke Brexit altogether and the other who prefer a second referendum. Corbyn’s neutrality to some extent does not satisfy many of those Remainers and the ardent one among them is the Liberal Democrats.
The Brexit Party’s support to the Conservative
Party, somehow facilitated by President Trump, has consolidated Johnson’s
position and there’s not much room for him to improve. But, Corbyn still has
some opportunity to win over Remainers. His advantage is denial of majority to
Johnson might open up No 10’s door to him and the Scottish National Party and
Greens are ready to help.
(Published in the Daily Star on December 10th, 2019)
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